JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• JPMorgan Chase delivered solid Q2 2025 results with diluted EPS of $5.24 and managed revenue of $45.7B, supported by strong Markets performance and resilient credit; excluding a $774M tax benefit, EPS was $4.96 .
• EPS beat Wall Street consensus by ~11% (consensus $4.47 vs $4.96 excluding the tax item) and revenue was above consensus ($45.68B vs $43.98B) as measured by managed net revenue; management also raised FY2025 NII guidance and affirmed a Q3 dividend increase, key positive catalysts for the stock (S&P Global data; see Estimates Context) .
• Segment momentum was broad-based: CIB net revenue rose 9% YoY to $19.5B with Markets +15% YoY and IB fees +7% YoY; CCB net income rose 23% YoY on higher card NII and auto lease income; AWM net revenue rose 10% with AUM at $4.3T and client assets at $6.4T .
• Guidance updates: NII ex-Markets ~$92B, total NII ~$95.5B, adjusted expense ~$95.5B, card NCO rate ~3.6%; Board intends to increase the quarterly dividend to $1.50 in Q3 and authorized a new $50B buyback program effective July 1, 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Robust Markets and improved IB activity: “Markets revenue rose to $8.9 billion… IB fees were up 7% for the quarter” (Jamie Dimon); Fixed Income +14% and Equities +15% YoY .
• Consumer franchise strength: ~500,000 net new checking accounts, refreshed Sapphire products, strong card acquisitions; CCB net income +23% YoY .
• Wealth momentum: Asset management fees +10% YoY; net inflows of $80B; client assets >$6.4T .

What Went Wrong

• Deposit margin compression weighed on NII ex-Markets; CFO highlighted rate headwinds despite deposit growth .
• Credit costs elevated: provision $2.85B with net charge-offs $2.41B (card seasoning) and $439M net reserve build, primarily in Wholesale .
• CET1 ratio declined 40 bps QoQ to 15.0% due to capital distributions and higher RWA, though still well above requirements (estimated) .

Financial Results

Consolidated results vs prior periods and consensus

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue and net income (Managed basis)

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Note: CFO referenced Investor Day previews and updated formal guidance; prior precise targets not provided in the documents cited .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Jamie Dimon: “We reported another quarter of strong results, generating net income of $15.0 billion or net income of $14.2 billion excluding a significant item… Markets revenue rose to $8.9 billion… IB fees were up 7%… client assets crossing over $6.4 trillion.”
• CFO Jeremy Barnum: “We now expect NIIX Markets to be approximately $92 billion… Total NII guidance is now about $95.5 billion… adjusted expense… about $95.5 billion… card net charge-off rate approximately 3.6%.”
• Dimon on regulation: “You can make the system simpler, cheaper, more effective, more transparent, and safer… It’s time they take a step back.”
• On stablecoins/deposit tokens: “We’re going to be involved… we don’t know exactly how it’s going to go… we have to be cognizant of [fintech]… The way to be cognizant is to be involved.”

Q&A Highlights

• Capital deployment and buybacks: Management will use capital “wisely” and is open to inorganic opportunities with a high bar; noted discomfort buying at “almost three times tangible book” and preference for organic growth .
• Wholesale loan growth and hedging: Late-quarter deal activity boosted CIB loans; NII dynamics reflect hedges and timing of balance sheet changes .
• Consumer/Commercial credit: Consumer credit stable; mild stress at lower-income cohorts as expected; commercial credit idiosyncrasies monitored (tariff impacts vary by sector) .
• Stablecoins & open banking: JPM will participate; emphasized proper pricing and liability frameworks, consumer data protections, and fraud responsibility .
• Regulatory stance: Strong push for holistic reforms (GSIB, SLR, LCR, CCAR); intent to increase lending/market-making without compromising safety .

Estimates Context

• EPS: Consensus $4.47 vs actual $4.96 excluding tax item; reported diluted EPS $5.24. Result is a clear beat, aided by stronger Markets and IB fees (values from S&P Global; actuals per filings) .
• Revenue: Consensus ~$43.98B vs managed revenue $45.68B (beat); reported net revenue $44.91B also above consensus (values from S&P Global; actuals per filings). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Implications: Raised NII and expense guidance should drive upward revisions to net interest forecasts; continued IB momentum and Markets strength may lift noninterest revenue estimates; card NCO guidance unchanged, reducing downside credit estimate risks .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Strong EPS beat and revenue above consensus, with raised NII guidance and planned dividend increase/buyback expansion—positive near-term catalysts .
• Markets revenue durability and improving IB pipelines support noninterest revenue trajectory; segment breadth (CCB, CIB, AWM) remains a core advantage .
• Credit costs elevated but manageable; card seasoning is expected and guided; reserve build primarily Wholesale—monitor RWA and CET1 trajectory as capital returns accelerate .
• Deposit margin compression persists ex-Markets; however, deposit growth in payments/securities services and card balance growth underpin NII .
• Regulatory developments (GSIB/SLR/LCR) could structurally benefit balance sheet usage and returns; management advocacy suggests potential medium-term tailwinds .
• AWM scale and net inflows continue to compound fee revenue; $4.3T AUM and $6.4T client assets provide recurring growth .
• Near term: Favorable setup into Q3 with dividend increase and IB momentum; medium term: watch NII sensitivity to rate cuts, Markets normalization risk, and regulatory final rules.

References

• Q2 2025 8-K and Earnings Release:
• Q2 2025 Call Transcript:
• Q1 2025 Supplement:
• Q4 2024 Supplement:
• Other Q2 press releases: Regulatory capital update and stress test notices

Values marked with asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.